Bitwise Lifts Its Bitcoin Target to $1.6M by 2036 as BTC Hovers Near $80K
October 30, 2026
A Bigger Number in a Tougher Year
Crypto asset manager Bitwise has raised its long-term Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036, up from the $1.3 million it set a year ago. The new figure implies a compound annual growth rate of 34.3%, compared with 28.3% in last year’s forecast. The upgrade lands at an unusual moment. Bitcoin is trading around $80,000 on Thursday, according to CoinGecko data, down more than 1% in 24 hours and still far below its October 2025 all-time high above $125,000. “We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year,” Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote in a client memo published on Wednesday.What Bitwise Actually Changed
The firm says it did not invent a new model. It ran the same framework with fresh data, and the inputs grew. Bitwise estimates the size of the markets Bitcoin could compete in in 10 years, then assigns Bitcoin a share of each. Its estimate for the global store-of-value market in 2036 rose from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, which Hougan linked to fears of currency debasement and sticky inflation. Its forecast for the institutional investment market jumped from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. Notably, Bitwise kept its market-share assumptions unchanged from 2025. Hougan called that choice conservative and admitted he was “tempted to increase it.” The report also lays out a range of outcomes, according to The Block. In the base case, Bitcoin takes 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional assets. The bear case lands at about $130,686 by 2036, while the bull case reaches $3.67 million.
Why a 53% Drop Made Bitwise More Confident
Bitcoin fell more than 50% between October 2025 and June 2026, bottoming below $59,000. For most forecasters, a slide like that would prompt them to cut targets, not raise them. Bitwise read it differently. Hougan pointed out that the 53% peak-to-trough fall was far shallower than past bear markets, which saw declines of 86%, 84% and 77%. He also noted that institutions kept adding Bitcoin exposure through the downturn, despite war in the Middle East, rising interest rates, and concerns about an AI bubble. “That Bitcoin made this sort of progress in a difficult year makes me very optimistic about what happens in a good one,” Hougan wrote. Since the June low, Bitcoin has recovered more than 35%, although the climb back has been uneven. Readers can track the live BTC price as the market digests the forecast.How a 34% Yearly Growth Rate Works
The headline number rests on a simple idea called the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR. It is the steady yearly rate that would carry an asset from today’s price to a future price, assuming growth builds on itself each year. Compounding is what makes the figure so large. If something grows 34% in year one, the next year’s 34% is calculated on the bigger total, not the starting amount. Over about a decade, that turns roughly $80,000 into $1.6 million, about 20 times today’s level. The catch is that real markets rarely move in a straight line. A CAGR describes an average path, while Bitcoin has historically delivered sharp rallies followed by deep drawdowns. Bitwise’s own Head of Research, Ryan Rasmussen, said Bitcoin “will likely remain a volatile asset with sharp downturns.”How Bitwise Compares Bitcoin With Stocks
For context, Bitwise set its Bitcoin forecast against average 10-year projections from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard. Those firms expect around 6.7% a year from US equities and 10.8% from private equity, the next-best asset class in the comparison. On those numbers, Bitwise expects Bitcoin to grow about five times faster than US stocks. Rasmussen said the firm expects Bitcoin to be “the best-performing major institutional asset in the world between now and 2036.” The demand argument is about supply and scale. According to the Bitwise announcement, institutions hold roughly $147 trillion in assets. A 1% to 5% allocation to Bitcoin could mean $1.5 trillion to $7 trillion of demand over the decade, compared with about $14 billion of new Bitcoin mined each year.The Case Against the Forecast
Bitwise is not a neutral observer. It manages around $14 billion in client assets and runs Bitcoin products, so a higher target also supports its business. The firm says its targets are illustrative, not predictions or guarantees. Hougan acknowledged the weak spots too. Most recent store-of-value money has flowed into gold rather than Bitcoin, the past year showed how hard Bitcoin can fall, and ETF buying has slowed. Inflows have picked up at times, as seen when Bitcoin ETFs added $286 million earlier this week, but the overall pace has cooled. For newcomers buying crypto online, the report’s clearest lesson is the spread between a $130,686 bear case and a $3.67 million bull case: even the bulls see a wide range of possible outcomes.A Forecast That Bets on Bitcoin Growing Up
The most telling part of the update is not the $1.6 million figure. The argument behind it is that Bitcoin’s swings may be shrinking as wealth platforms, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks move closer to the asset. If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could start to behave less like a speculative trade and more like a long-term portfolio holding. If it doesn’t, and the next cycle brings another 80% drop, the model’s assumptions would likely need rethinking. Either way, a major asset manager raising its target in the middle of a 36% drawdown suggests that some institutions are judging Bitcoin on a decade-long clock, not a quarterly one.
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Madiha Riaz
Madiha is a seasoned researcher in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and emerging Web3 technologies. With a background in organic chemistry and a sharp analytical mindset, she brings scientific depth to decentralized innovation. Since discovering crypto in 2017 and investing in 2018, she’s been uncovering and sharing deep insights into how blockchain is redefining the digital asset landscape.
