Polymarket Raises December Rate-Cut Odds to 87% Amid Crypto Stock Surge

A Sharp Shift in Market Expectations

A major shift in interest-rate expectations is reshaping sentiment across digital assets, pulling traders back into risk-on positioning after weeks of uncertainty. Prediction platform Polymarket now shows an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, marking its highest reading of the month and signaling a decisive change in how markets view the path of monetary policy.

This surge in confidence has quickly spilled into crypto stocks, Bitcoin miners, and digital-asset equities, all of which are reacting to the possibility of cheaper liquidity entering the system.

For anyone tracking the latest crypto news, the move underscores how deeply macro expectations continue to influence trading behavior, reminding investors that interest-rate shifts remain one of the strongest catalysts for momentum across the digital-asset market.

Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source: Polymarket

Rate-Cut Odds Jump After New Fed Signals

The jump in Polymarket’s odds reflects a dramatic change in tone from key Federal Reserve officials. Just weeks earlier, Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank was not yet confident inflation had been defeated, which pushed markets to expect a longer period of restrictive policy. Sentiment weakened, and risk assets cooled.

That narrative flipped when Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, one of the Fed’s more hawkish voices, stated that the labor market was near stall speed and inflation was relatively close to the central bank’s two percent target.

Because Waller is normally cautious about easing, traders interpreted this as a strong indication that the Fed may be preparing to soften its policy stance. Within hours, Polymarket’s December rate-cut probability surged, and the shift filtered directly into changing crypto market prices as investor appetite returned.

Crypto Stocks and Miners React Strongly

The market response was immediate and broad. Bitcoin rebounded nearly 7% over the week after dipping close to $82k on November 21. Miners saw even more outsized reactions. Shares of Cleanspark, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining posted double-digit gains over a 5-day period, reflecting how sensitive their business models are to financing conditions. Lower borrowing costs strengthen miner balance sheets and improve expansion economics, which is why these stocks often act as high-beta plays on monetary policy.

Other crypto-linked companies moved higher as well. Circle, the issuer of USDC, gained nearly 10%, while Coinbase and MicroStrategy registered moderate increases. The wider market treated the shift in expectations as a green light to add exposure to crypto-related equities. The rebound in the BTC price reinforced the view that traders are preparing for a more supportive macro environment.

Prediction Markets Gain Influence

One of the notable dynamics behind this story is the growing influence of prediction platforms. Polymarket has expanded rapidly and now attracts meaningful liquidity from traders who want immediate sentiment data that traditional markets often deliver more slowly.

The platform recently signed a multi-year partnership with TKO Group Holdings, becoming the official prediction-market partner of UFC and Zuffa Boxing. Meanwhile, rivals such as Kalshi continue to gain traction in the regulated prediction-market space.

This increasing adoption indicates a shift in how traders evaluate macro risk. Instead of waiting for institutional research desks or economic releases, many turn to prediction markets for early signals. This trend is spreading among retail users as well, who increasingly check these platforms to gauge sentiment before deciding whether to buy crypto or rotate into other risk assets. The more these markets grow, the more they shape mainstream expectations.

Why a December Rate Cut Matters for Crypto

The possibility of a December rate cut carries major implications for digital assets. Lower interest rates typically weaken yields on traditional instruments, reduce the strength of the U.S. dollar, and push investors toward growth markets where upside potential is higher. When cash becomes less rewarding to hold, investors generally increase exposure to assets that benefit from liquidity expansion, which often includes cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin, in particular, responds strongly to macro easing because it is widely viewed as a hedge against monetary debasement and financial tightening. A shift toward cheaper liquidity historically attracts new inflows and elevates trading activity.

In this environment, both long-term holders and short-term traders reevaluate their positioning. The possibility of cheaper borrowing, improving liquidity conditions, and rising risk appetite gives the market a narrative that can support further upside.

Miners stand to benefit as well. Their operations require large capital expenditures, including energy costs, equipment purchases, and infrastructure expansion. When interest rates fall, financing becomes more affordable, allowing miners to scale operations more efficiently. This is one reason their stock prices often outperform Bitcoin during periods of expected policy easing.

What Comes Next for Markets

The next weeks will determine whether expectations continue to consolidate around a December cut or shift again based on new data. Traders will watch labor-market releases, inflation numbers, and upcoming Fed speeches closely. If policymakers confirm that inflation is slowing and economic activity is cooling, markets may price an even higher probability of easing. That could strengthen risk-on sentiment further and push digital-asset equities higher.

However, if the Fed pushes back against market optimism, volatility may return. Rate-cut expectations have fluctuated sharply throughout the year, and traders know sentiment can reverse quickly. Still, the current 87% probability on Polymarket underscores how aggressively investors are repositioning ahead of the year’s final policy decisions.

A Narrative That Can Drive December Trading

The surge in Polymarket’s rate-cut odds highlights how quickly macro expectations can reshape the crypto landscape and influence investor positioning. Bitcoin, miners, and crypto-linked companies have already responded to the prospect of cheaper liquidity, showing how tightly digital assets remain tied to interest-rate expectations.

Prediction platforms are now acting as early warning systems for shifts in sentiment, giving traders a clearer sense of how markets may move before official statements arrive. Whether the Federal Reserve ultimately follows through with a December cut or holds its ground, the current adjustment in expectations has already set the tone for the weeks ahead. As December approaches, the entire crypto market will remain highly sensitive to every hint or signal coming from policymakers.